The Australian Dollar (AUD) is under the gun after below forecast Aussie Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Economists at Société Générale analyze AUD/USD outlook. 

Australia’s CPI steady at 3.4% in January, core eases to 4.1%  

The RBA will draw comfort from the January CPI data but will not declare victory.

Inflation stagnated at 3.4% instead of accelerating again, and core slowed to 4.1%, the lowest in two years. Progress is glacial but the central bank can be confident in the base case playing out and inflation will return to the target range of 2-3% in 2025 without the need for additional tightening. 

For AUD/USD, the chart does not look great and price action is reminiscent of early February when the successful break above the 200-DMA proved short-lived. Support must hold at 0.6480 to avoid a deeper pullback.

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