- EUR/GBP trades with mild losses around 0.8310 in Thursday’s early European session.
- BoE Chief Economist Pill sounded cautious on rate cuts.
- ECB’s Rehn said the December cut is likely with disinflation on track.
The EUR/GBP cross trades with mild negative bias near 0.8310 during the early European session on Thursday. The flash Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) number for the third quarter (Q3) will be released later on Thursday. The Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde are scheduled to speak later on the same day.
The UK Unemployment Rate rose more than expected to 4.3% for the three months ending in September, weighing on the Pound Sterling (GBP). ”The higher (UK) unemployment rate could see the market start to price in a higher chance of a rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) next month,” noted XTB analysts.
However, the Bank of England Chief Economist Pill remains cautious, saying that wage growth “remains quite sticky” at elevated levels and is “hard to reconcile with the UK inflation target.” Pill further stated, “We have seen a substantial disinflation in the UK economy, and that has allowed monetary policy restriction to be reduced.
The hawkish remarks from the BOE might cap the downside for the GBP for the time being. Traders await the speech from the BoE’s Bailey on Thursday for some hints about the UK interest rate outlook.
The ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said on Tuesday that additional interest rate cuts are coming and the deposit rate could hit the so-called neutral level in the first half of next year. The expectation that the ECB is likely to deliver more rate cuts than the BoE might undermine the Euro (EUR) in the near term.
Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut then, as well as a nearly 20% chance of a larger 50 bps move. Looking ahead, investors will keep an eye on the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde’s speech on Thursday.
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