- The Pound Sterling rebounds slightly after weak UK GDP-driven-selling on Friday.
- The next big move for the British currency will likely occur on Wednesday when UK inflation data for October will be released.
- Fed officials refrain from projecting the consequences of Trump’s policies on interest rates.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher against its major peers on Monday, striving to gain ground after Friday’s sell-off. The British currency fell sharply after the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the economy surprisingly contracted by 0.1% in September. The data also showed that the economy barely grew in the third quarter.
The unexpected fall in UK GDP could prompt expectations for more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). “We believe that if UK economic data continues to disappoint, the BoE may become more focused on reviving growth,” according to analysts at BBVA.
The uncertainty over the UK economic outlook is expected to deepen further as the government is caught between choosing the European Union (EU) and the US for strengthening its trade relations. The comments from Stephen Moore, a senior economist advisor to Donald Trump, in an interview with BBC indicated that the US will be less interested in working with the UK if it puts the EU ahead of it.
“The UK is kind of caught in the middle of these two forms of economic model and I believe that Britain would be better off moving towards more of the American model of economic freedom. And if that were the case, I think it would spur the Trump administration’s willingness to do the free trade agreement with the UK,” Moore said. His comments came after BoE Governor Andrew Bailey urged the administration to rebuild ties with the European Union.
This week, investors will pay close attention to the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which will be published on Wednesday. The inflation data is likely to influence BoE rate cut expectations for the December meeting.
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