The Euro (EUR) plunged in response to poor macro data reports earlier. German and French PMI data for November nearly all disappointed expectations; only German Manufacturing bettered consensus estimates but the data here remained quite weak (43.2, from October’s 43.0).
EUR slumps to near two-year low
“Preliminary Eurozone data looked very poor as a result, with Services and the Composite reading dropping sharply on the month and falling back under 50 (to 49.2 and 48.1 respectively). Manufacturing also dropped to 45.2. Weakening growth momentum boosted expectations that the ECB will cut rates more aggressively next month.”
“Dec swaps added around 10bps of expected easing from yesterday and are pricing in 38bps of cuts following the data. The EUR is consolidating significant, intraday losses above the early European low around 1.0335 but the broader undertone in spot remains very soft.”
“EUR losses from the early week consolidation high near 1.06 do not look complete and a weekly close under the 2023 low (1.0447) would edge risks squarely towards more significant, medium-term losses for the EUR in the medium term. Minor EUR rebounds to the mid/upper 1.04s are likely to attract strong selling interest for now.
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