EUR/USD Price Forecast: The path of least resistance is to the downside near 1.0300

EUR/USD drifts lower to around 1.0315 in Monday’s early European session.
The negative view of the pair prevails below the 100-day EMA with the bearish RSI indicator.
The initial support level is seen at 1.0267; the immediate resistance level to watch is 1.0458.

The EUR/USD pair weakens to near 1.0315 during the early European session on Monday. The expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will further cut the interest rate this year undermines the Euro (EUR) against the Greenback. Later on Monday, investors will take more cues from the Eurozone HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the preliminary reading of German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December.

Technically, the bearish outlook of EUR/USD remains in play as the major pair remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Furthermore, the downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located below the midline around 35.90, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

The lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.0267 acts as an initial support level for the major pair. A decisive break below the mentioned level could expose the 1.0200 level. Further south, the next contention level is seen at 1.0160, the low of August 8, 2022.

On the bright side, the first upside barrier for EUR/USD emerges at 1.0458, the high of December 30. Sustained trading above this level could pave the way to 1.0550, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Extended gains could see the next hurdle at 1.0663, the 100-day EMA.