Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down a modest 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) but underperforming all of the G10 currencies in relatively quiet trade, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
Markets are waiting for CPI Wednesday & BoE Thursday
“Market participants are waiting on Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s BoE. Inflation is expected to show a softening trend while still remaining in the mid/lower-3% area on both headline and core. For the BoE, policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged while communicating a neutral/dovish bias. Markets are currently pricing one 25bpt hike by September and a cumulative 50bpts by December, adding about 5pbts of easing to the latter over the past month.”
“GBP/USD’s trend remains bullish, given its recent push to fresh multi-year highs above 1.36. Bullish momentum is fading somewhat, however the longer-term trend is clearly defined by the sequence of higher lows and higher highs observed following the mid-January bottom. There are no major longer-term resistance levels ahead of 1.3750. The latest range is defined by support below 1.3480 and resistance above 1.3620. “
- EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Holds steady but maintains bullish bias above 100-day EMA support
- EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Supported by converging SMAs but capped below 0.8750
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