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Gold sticks to gains below $4,600 as de-escalation hopes temper rate hike expectations

March 25, 2026

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Gold attracts follow-through buyers as hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire temper hawkish central bank bets.
Geopolitical risks remain in play, underpinning the USD and capping gains for the precious metal.
The technical setup favors bullish traders and backs the case for a further near-term appreciation.

Gold (XAU/USD) retains positive bias through the first half of the European session, though it remains below the weekly high, around the $4,600 mark set earlier this Wednesday. Moreover, the precious metal remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, and volatility is expected to remain elevated as investors react to further developments in the ongoing conflict. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of this week’s solid recovery from a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the $4,100 mark, or a four-month low.

Reports suggest that diplomatic efforts are underway to introduce a one-month ceasefire mechanism to allow the US and Iran to negotiate a plan to end the conflict. This follows US President Donald Trump’s decision earlier this week to delay planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by five days, citing indirect negotiations, fueling hopes for de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Adding to this, Trump said that Iran offered a “present” linked to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate goodwill in negotiations. The optimism weighs on Crude Oil prices and eases inflationary concerns, tempering bets for more hawkish central banks and assisting the non-yielding Gold to attract some follow-through buyers.

The conflict, however, shows no signs of easing, with Israel continuing its strikes on the Islamic Republic and the US deploying additional troops to the region. In fact, the Trump administration has directed thousands of soldiers from the US Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. Iran, on the other hand, has fired a new missile barrage at Israel, while Gulf countries also reported repeated drone and missile interceptions, as fighting intensifies in Lebanon and Iraq. This keeps investors on edge and limits the downside for Crude Oil prices. Moreover, markets continue to factor in inflation risks stemming from elevated energy prices and uncertainty around the interest rate trajectory, which, in turn, acts as a headwind for the Gold price.

Meanwhile, traders have nearly fully priced out the possibility of any further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and are rapidly increasing bets for a hike by the end of this year. The hawkish outlook offers some support to the US Dollar (USD) and might further cap the XAU/USD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the Gold price has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any further appreciating move.