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EUR/USD reversal approaches 1.1500 amid higher Oil prices, risk-off markets

April 2, 2026

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EUR/USD hits session lows below 1.1500 following a knee-jerk reaction at 1.1627.
Expectations of a protracted Iran war and higher Oil prices are hammering the Euro on Thursday.
Technical indicators show growing bearish momentum with support at 1.1440 on the bears’ focus.

The Euro (EUR) declines more than 0.5% against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its reversal from Wednesday’s highs near 1.1625 to session lows just below 1.1520 so far. Fading hopes of a swift end to the Iran war have reactivated risk-off trades, supporting the Greenback and boosting Oil prices, to the detriment of the crude-importing Eurozone economies.

US President Donald Trump failed to provide any specific deadline for the Iran war in a televised message on Wednesday, as everybody was expecting. Instead, he reiterated the bellicose rhetoric and repeated his calls on allies to “build up the courage” to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The risk appetite witnessed over the previous two days vanished, equities dropped, and Oil and the US Dollar soared.

Technical Analysis: Bears aim for the 1.1440 area

EUR/USD recovery was capped on Wednesday at the reverse trendline of the broken bullish channel, right below 1.1630, which confirms the broader bearish trend.

Technical indicators are also turning negative, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) about to cross below the signal line, suggesting fading upside momentum, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the 50 line that divides the bullish from the bearish territory.

The knee-jerk reaction featured by the Euro has increased pressure towards the March 19 and 31 lows, around 1.1440 ahead of the March 13 low at 1.1411. Further down, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the early March sell-off lies at 1.1327. On the upside, immediate resistance emerges at the 1.1606, session’s high, ahead of the mentioned reverse trendline, now at 1.1630, and the March 23 high, near 1.1640.