Technical analysis – GBPUSD falls without a parachute

GBPUSD sliced through some crucial support levels this week, erasing all its gains for the year. The pair rebounded off the 1.3410 support region, but there’s a series of lower highs and lower lows forming since early June. Indeed, the 50-day moving average (MA) has also crossed below the 200-day one, forming a ‘death cross’. All this points to a downtrend. The short-term oscillators are mixed, with the RSI reflecting the latest rebound in the price action but the MACD staying firmly negative and below its red trigger line. 

If sellers remain in control and manage to pierce below the 1.3410 barrier, their next target could be the 1.3310 zone, marked by the lows in late December. If that’s violated too, the focus would then turn towards the 1.3185 area. Now in case buyers retake the reins, the first test to the upside would be the 1.3600 hurdle, which acted as support in recent months and may now provide resistance. A potential break above it could open the door for the 1.3750 neighborhood, which also encompasses the 50-day MA. In short, the latest breaks have turned the picture bearish. A move below 1.3410 would reinforce the negative outlook.

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