EUR/USD bears rest at an area of consolidation, eyes on French elections and Ukraine.

EUR/USD in an area of consolidation for the open. A big in French politics and the Ukraine crisis is ongoing. 

The euro fell to the lowest levels since May 2020 after the European Central Bank kept its policy stance broadly unchanged, sticking to plans to slowly unwind stimulus. Interest rates will, however, only go up “some time” after the end of bond buys and they will be gradual, the ECB added and the divergence between the Fed, expected to hike by 50bps, and the ECB coupled with the contagion risks on the Ukraine crisis is falling into the hands of the US dollar bulls. 

The markets will be closed for Easter Monday in much of the major financial hubs of the world, so activity in the FX space would be expected to be subdued. However, it will be a crucial week in French politics s well as the city of Mariupol, Ukraine, which is under siege and a potential red-line with regards to high-level peace talks.

Firstly, the presidential hopefuls Macron and Le Pen face off in a televised debate ahead of Sunday’s second-round vote. ”Both are desperate to attract left-wing voters and are likely to pivot sharply in that direction through the week. Macron will aim to convince centre-left voters to show up, Le Pen will target the populist left and those affected most by the cost-of-living crisis,” analysts at TD Securities said. The euro tends to be firmer when Macron is in poll-position. 

As for the Ukraine crisis, the 50th day of the invasion was marked by an escalation of tensions in the warnings by Ukraine to Russia that the elimination of the last Ukrainian forces in Mariupol would end the talks with Russia. 

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has explained that he expects the “intensification of heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine, in Donbas, large scale offensive of Russia in that part of Ukraine.”

”And also desperate attempts of the Russian forces, as I said, and to- to finish with Mariupol at any cost. These are my expectations. And, of course, missile attacks on Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine seem to continue.”

AUD/USD drops towards 0.7350 on mixed Chinese data, risk-aversion.AUD/USD is dropping towards 0.7350 on mixed Chinese economic data, with the Q1 GDP numbers outpacing estimates. The pair is in a significantly strong downtrend amid a firmer US dollar and broad risk-aversion. However, given it is Easter Monday, there perhaps will not be much in the way of price action.


EUR/USD: Bears in control, but weekly M-formation is menacing.The euro is bobbing along the bottom of the bear cycle range and likely has more to go to the downside in order to mitigate the imbalance left behind from the March 2020 rally down in the 106 areas. The M-formation on the weekly chart contradicts the bearish bias. 


Gold hits five-week highs as Easter Monday sees flight to safety.Gold Price eyes an upside to recapture $2,000 amid a flight to safety. Elevated inflation, recession risks and the Russia-Ukraine war boost safe-haven appeal. The speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will keep investors busy this week.

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