Surveys and updated Bank of England (BoE) forecasts for MPC on Thursday, May 5 will be critical in determining how aggressive the cost of living shock will be and so the vulnerability of GBP. The GBP/USD pair could slide to the 1.2775-1.2800 area on a sustained break below 1.30, economists at Westpac report.
Is UK facing a cost-of-living-crunch or a merely pause in the economic upswing?
“A series of timely surveys will be released into the end of this month and so ahead of the BoE’s early May MPC meeting. The MPC will also receive their quarterly Monetary Policy Review with its updated forecasts. Collectively, the data should provide the MPC with more insight on the potential severity of the UK’s cost-of-living crisis. The impact of the surge on discretionary spending will be a key factor for MPC’s hiking path.”
“Markets are currently pricing between 125 and 150 bps of further hikes into end 2022 though MPC has implied a softer path.”
“GBP/USD has tested levels below 1.30. A break could trigger a slide to support in the 1.2775-1.2800 area. GBP needs a close above 1.3150 to reduce such pressure.”
EUR/USD clings to strong daily gains above 1.0900 after EU data.EUR/USD trades at its highest level in more than a week above 1.0900 on Thursday as the euro capitalizes on hawkish ECB commentary. The data from the EU showed that the annual HICP rose to 7.4% in March, compared to the flash estimate of 7.5%. Eyes on ECB President Lagarde’s appearance at the IMF event.
GBP/USD struggles to gain traction, holds above 1.3050.Despite the selling pressure surrounding the greenback, GBP/USD is struggling to build on Wednesday’s gains and trading in a tight range above 1.3050. The broad-based euro strength has fueled a rally in EUR/GBP on Thursday, limiting GBP/USD’s upside.
Gold struggles near one-week low, below $1,950 ahead of Powell.Gold struggled to capitalize on the previous day’s modest rebound from over a one-week low and came under some renewed selling pressure on Thursday. The XAU/USD remained on the defensive through the early European session and was last seen trading just below the $1,950 level.
XRP whales enter buying spree making a breakout to $1 inevitable.XRP price remains subdued between two key levels, delaying its upswing. However, the next leg-up for the big crypto could trigger a rally for Ripple that pushes it toward long-awaited hurdles.