FX markets have entered a consolidative phase. That has allowed the Dollar to correct 3-4% lower. Yet, economists at ING still feel it is too soon to call a major turn in the Dollar.
When will asset markets turn?
“Over the next couple of months, the direction of travel for US real yields is higher still. A 2.00% level on the US 10-year real yield is entirely possible as the Fed takes the policy rate towards 5.00%, dragging long-end yields with it. That should keep the Dollar bid across the board.”
“The turn in global bond markets should provide the first real opportunity for money to be put back to work in asset markets – potentially at the expense of the Dollar. Our base case, however, is that this is not a story until early 2023. Before then, we see EUR/USD staying under pressure this winter. Sub-0.95 levels are possible.”
“Japan’s campaign to slow the USD/JPY advance should not prevent further forays over 150. And GBP/USD can easily trade at sub 1.10 levels as the tight fiscal and less hawkish monetary policy wins through in a still difficult external environment.”
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