EUR/USD hovers around 1.0900 after hitting a low of 1.0876.The EUR/USD falls during the North American session and retraces towards the 1.0900 figure after a solid US Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, the Euro (EUR) is set to finish the week with decent gains of 0.61%, though it ended short of reclaiming 1.1000. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0910, below its opening price by 0.07%.
EUR/USD clings to 1.0900 on mixed US jobs data.The US economic docket featured March’s jobs report, revealed by the US Department of Labor. Payrolls rose below estimates of 240k and hit 236K, but the data insights triggered a jump in odds for a US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 25 bps rate hike. The Participation Rate jumped to 62.6%, from 62.4% foresaw, and the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.6% YoY. Average Hourly Earnings fell to 4.2% annually basis, beneath the consensus.
Therefore, US Treasury bond yields extended their gains, with the 2-year US T-bond yield, the most sensitive to interest rates, climbing 16 basis points. The Fed swaps are repricing the May monetary policy meeting, with odds for a 25 bps rate hike by the US Federal Reserve itching up, to 67.0%, compared to Thursday’s 49.2%, as shown by the CME FedWatch Tool.
Even though the European (EU) economic docket was absent, Klas Knot, an European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member, had crossed the wires. Knot commented the ECB is not done with interest rate hikes, as core inflation remains at 6%, three times the ECB’s 2% target.
“The only question is whether you still need to take a further step up by half a percentage point, like the last few times we raised rates, or can you already scale back to smaller increments of a quarter of a percentage point,” he said.When asked about cutting rates towards the year’s end, Knot described such a scenario as “almost impossible.”
Meanwhile, Worldwide Interest Rate Probabilities (WIRP) show odds for a 25 bps rate hike by the European Central Bank at 90%. Following that, another 25 bps rate increase is expected, and no movement for Q4.
What to watch?
The EU’s docket will feature Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Germany’s inflation, and a round of ECB speakers throughout the week. On the US front, the calendar will feature the Consumer and the Producer Price Index (CPI/PPI) for March, the FOMC’s last meeting minutes, Jobless Claims, and Retail Sales on the data side. The Fed parade will continue during the week.
EUR/USD steadies near 1.0900 after US jobs report
EUR/USD has managed to return above 1.0900 after having dropped below that level with the initial reaction to the US jobs report, which showed that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 236,000 in March. Thin trading conditions on Good Friday doesn’t allow the pair to gain directional momentum.
EUR/USD News
GBP/USD holds above 1.2400 following NFP-inspired decline
GBP/USD recovered modestly after falling below 1.2400 with the knee-jerk reaction to the mixed March jobs report from the US. US stock markets will remain closed on Good Friday and US bond markets will end the day early, possibly causing the market action to remain subdued.
GBP/USD News
Gold eyes increased volatility at the opening next week
Gold price settled above $2,000 but it could face increased volatility at the beginning of next week with investors assessing the March jobs report from the US. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.5% with a 236K increase in Nonfarm Payrolls but wage inflation continued to soften in the US.
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