Gold prices spike up but remain little changed after the release of US CPI data.All eyes are now on The Fed’s interest rate projections and Chairman Powell’s press conference.Gold’s near-term bias remains negative, with hopes of Fed cuts ebbing.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) ticked higher on Tuesday following the release of the US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) report, which has triggered a cautious optimism ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve’s (FED) Monetary policy decision.
The precious metal, however, remains practically flat on the day with bullish attempts capped below the $2,000 psychological level, and sellers contained at the $1,980 support area.
US Inflation has met the market expectations except for the monthly CPI, which remained flat in November, against the 0.1% increment foreseen by the market. The 3.1% yearly increase in the headline inflation and the 4% year-on-year core inflation do not change significantly the outlook for Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
The US Central Bank is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold at the current 5.25%-5.5% band and put the focus on the interest rate projections for next year and on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. Investors will be looking for dovish hints on Powell’s comments to revive hopes of rate cuts in early 2024, which would give a fresh boost to Gold prices.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold remains little moved after US CPI data
US CPI has remained flat in November and increased 3.1% year on year. The core CPI remains steady at 4%, in line with the market consensus.US Treasury yields have seen a moderately positive reaction, with the benchmark 10-year note increasing by 15 basis points after the CPI release.US inflation data does not change the market’s view on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The market keeps pricing a 45% chance of Fed rate cuts in March, while the odds for a May rate cuts are evenly split, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.
Gold prices have found some support on Tuesday after a two-day decline, favoured by softer US yields and a weaker US Dollar ahead as we head into Wednesday’s Fed monetary policy decision.Geopolitical tensions continue growing amid news of attacks to the US troops in the Middle East by Iran-backed groups. This provides some support to precious metals on the back of their safe-haven status.
Technical Analysis: Gold remains on the defensive, with $1,980 support under pressure
The technical picture for Gold remains bearish, with upside attempts capped well below the $2,000 psychological level. Price action has broken below the main Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) in the 4-hour charts, which leaves the $1,980 support level under increasing bearish pressure.
The mentioned $1,980 is the neckline of a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October – December rally. Below here, the next targets would be mid-November lows at $1,934, ahead of $1,838, and the measured target of the H&S pattern at $1,851.
A bullish reversal from current levels would have to breach the $2,000 level to ease negative pressure and shift the pair’s focus towards $2,035 and $2,075.
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