Euro (EUR) is strong, up an impressive 0.6% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD weakness, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
ECB 25bpt cut is fully priced and widely anticipated
“The euro area final manufacturing PMI came in as expected, at 49.4, with Germany disappointing marginally at 48.3 and France offering a modest surprise at 49.8. The data highlight this week will be the preliminary euro area CPI scheduled for release on Tuesday, with expectations of a moderation in both headline and core to 2.0% y/y and 2.4% y/y, respectively.”
“In terms of event risk, Thursday’s ECB meeting will be critical as policymakers deliver a fresh set of forecasts and offer some insight into their expectations for rates. Recent guidance has been dovish and a 25bpt cut is fully priced and widely anticipated. With markets pricing at least one more 25bpt cut by December, the risk lies with a neutral or hawkish cut with messaging the signals a possible end to the easing cycle.”
“The latest extension of gains above 1.14 has delivered a fresh local high reaching levels last briefly seen in late April. The RSI is bullish at 60 but well short of the overbought threshold at 70. Recent support has been observed around the 50 day MA (1.1209) and resistance appears limited ahead of the late April high at 1.1573.”
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