The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
Focus on market’s fading dovish ECB pricing
“The EUR is still holding above last week’s lows, and movement remains headline-driven in the absence of major domestic events and releases. The latest PMI’s have weighed on the EUR somewhat, with manufacturing remaining unchanged at 49.4 (vs. 49.7 exp.) as services met expectations of 50.0, climbing modestly from 49.7.”
“This week’s data calendar includes the German IFO figures on Tuesday and France’s inflation data on Friday, as well as a heavy schedule of ECB speakers throughout the week. ECB rate expectations have been shedding their dovish bias, now pricing 20bpts of easing by year end vs. 25bpts last Monday.”
“The bullish technical picture is softening for EUR/USD as the multi-month sequence of higher lows and higher highs has been met with slowing momentum and an RSI that has drifted back toward the neutral level at 50. We continue to note the importance of the 50 day MA support level at 1.1364. We look to near-term support expected around 1.1420 and look to resistance above 1.1520.”
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