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EUR/USD edges lower on CPI caution, Italy inflation dips below ECB target.

August 12, 2025

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EUR/USD down 0.30%, trading at 1.1605 after touching daily high of 1.1675.
US Dollar bought ahead of US July CPI release; hot print could dampen Fed rate cut bets.
Italy’s July inflation steady at 1.7% YoY, matching ECB target and June reading.
Trump–Putin talks may yield Ukraine ceasefire progress, potentially easing EU energy costs.

The EUR/USD edges lower on Monday, down 0.26% as the Greenback is bought by traders ahead of another inflation report in the United States (US) coming Tuesday. This, along with Italy’s revelation that prices reached the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target, justifies the need to hold rates even at the next meeting. The pair trades at 1.1615 after hitting a daily high of 1.1675.

The shared currency halted its advance, even though talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to show progress on a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. A favorable resolution could unleash the Euro as most European Union (EU) countries are net importers of energy, and a ceasefire or peace plan could push prices lower due to de-escalation of the conflict.

Traders are also eyeing the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures in the US. If prices jump, exceeding forecasts, market players could begin to price out the chances of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Across the pond, Italy reported that inflation rose by 1.7% YoY in July, which was as expected and unchanged from June’s data.

Ahead, the EU’s docket will feature the EU and Germany ZEW Survey for August, French inflation, and growth data for the bloc. In the US, the economic schedule is expected to announce inflation on the consumer and the producer fronts, Fed speeches, jobless claims, Industrial Production data, Retail Sales, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for August.