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EUR/USD: Jittery range trading outlook – Rabobank

March 11, 2026

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Rabobank’s FX Strategy team expects EUR/USD to remain volatile as higher Oil and food prices stoke inflation concerns and support the Dollar’s safe haven appeal. They keep a central view of choppy ranges in 2026 but flag downside risks to their 1–3 month EUR/USD 1.16 forecast if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed.

Energy shock keeps Euro under pressure

“Indeed, next week brings eight G10 central bank meetings including those from the Fed and the ECB, which adds extra interest into the outlook for EUR/USD. We haven’t altered our central forecast that EUR/USD is set to trade in choppy ranges this year as it digests and processes the newsflow this year. Indeed, activity since the start of 2026 has underpinned this viewpoint.”

“We currently see downside risk to our 1 to 3 months forecast of EUR/USD1.16 should the Strait of Hormuz remain effectively closed for an extended period and we will be re-evaluating these forecasts over the coming week or so. For now, resistance on the upside is being provided by the 200-day sma at EUR/USD1.1676.”

“In our view, the positive reaction of the USD to the conflict in the Middle East has underpinned that the greenback retains its safe haven status. Its recent gains should weaken fears that have prevailed since last spring that the USD has entered into a period of structural weakness.”

“This relationship suggests that a higher for longer oil price is supportive for the greenback. In contrast, the EUR could come under pressure from the Eurozone’s position as a net energy importer.”

“This week EUR/USD has printed lows in the 1.1507 area. We would not be surprised to see this area re-visited in the days ahead on the assumption that markets remain jittery. A sustained increase in the price of energy could push EUR/USD back to last summer’s levels in the 1.14 area and potentially below.”