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Gold hits four-week low as firmer US Dollar, Oil-driven inflation weigh

April 28, 2026

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Gold drops to a four-week low as stalled US-Iran talks keep the US Dollar supported amid lingering uncertainty.
Hormuz supply disruption keeps Oil prices elevated, fueling inflation risks and reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” rate outlook.
Technically, XAU/USD remains capped below the 100-day and 50-day SMAs, with momentum indicators signaling growing bearish pressure.

Gold (XAU/USD) slips to a near one-month low, pressured by a firmer US Dollar (USD) and mounting Oil-driven inflation concerns, as investors await clearer signals on stalled diplomatic efforts between the United States (US) and Iran to end the war. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,571, down roughly 2.35% on the day.

This Tuesday marks two months since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran. While a ceasefire appears to be holding, there has been no meaningful progress toward a second round of peace talks. The United States is reviewing Iran’s latest proposal. Still, early signals suggest that US President Donald Trump and his national security team remain skeptical of Tehran’s offer, which leaves nuclear negotiations for a later stage.

With no near-term resolution in sight, risk sentiment remains fragile, keeping the US Dollar supported. A stronger Greenback reduces demand for bullion as it becomes more expensive in other currencies. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.74, erasing the previous day’s losses and up 0.25% on the day.

At the same time, Oil prices continue to rise as supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely disrupted due to a dual blockade, fueling inflation risks. This, in turn, adds further pressure on the metal, as markets expect central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), to keep borrowing costs higher for longer and may even consider raising rates if inflation pressures persist.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold, as the metal does not offer any yield. Traders now look ahead to the upcoming Fed monetary policy decision due on Wednesday, where a hold is fully priced in, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The focus will be on forward guidance, which is likely to determine the next directional move in Gold, as a hawkish stance is expected to keep prices under pressure.

On the data front, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average eased to 39.25K from 40.25K previously. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.8, beating the forecast of 89 and improving from the previous 91.8 (revised to 92.2), pointing to resilient consumer sentiment.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD trades below key SMAs as downside momentum builds

On the daily chart, XAU/USD remains capped below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA, keeping the near-term bias bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 39 holds below the midline, while a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading points to building downside momentum, suggesting sellers remain in control.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA around $4,749, with a subsequent barrier at the 50-day SMA near $4,854, and bulls would need a daily close above this cluster to reassert a stronger uptrend. On the downside, immediate support comes from the nearby horizontal level at $4,550, while a deeper slide would expose the 200-day SMA around $4,263, where longer-term buyers could attempt to defend the broader bullish structure.