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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound pares losses and nears range top at 1.3300

October 15, 2026

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GBP/USD hits session highs above 1.3250 after bouncing from a 16-month low at 1.3137.
Strong UK GDP and Industrial Production data have offset the impact of BoE Pill’s dovish comments.
The recent Pound’s rebound suggests that the pair may have completed a bearish Elliot Wave cycle.

The British Pound (GBP) retraces Wednesday’s losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as upbeat UK macroeconomic data has offset the negative impact of Bank of England’s (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill’s comments. The GBP/USD has returned to the mid-range of the 1.3200s, after testing year-to-date lows around 1.3140 the previous day, and approaches the last three weeks’ range top, at the 1.3300 area.

UK data released on Thursday revealed that the economy grew unexpectedly in August, with GDP up 0.1%, against the 0.1% contraction anticipated by market analysts and following a 0.4% growth in the previous month. These figures have been largely due to the stronger-than-expected UK industrial Production, which has offset the softer performance of the construction and services sectors.

In the US, hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday boosted hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in October, but some central bank officials poured cool water, playing down the possibility of back-to-back rate hikes, and triggering a significant pullback in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar.

Technical Analysis: The Pound might have found a bottom at the 1.3140 area

GBP/USD trades at 1.3257, with a neutral near-term tone as the pair consolidates its recovery from Wednesday’s lows, with bulls looking at the top of the last few weeks’ trading range, at the 1.3300 area. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 55 suggests balanced, modestly positive momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive but remains close to zero, reinforcing the idea of a range-bound market rather than a directional breakout.

A clear break of the mentioned 1.3300 level and, preferably, with a continuation above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3345 would confirm the completion of a five-wave (Elliot Wave) cycle. That scenario would bring the mid-September highs, just above 1.3400, into focus, ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3470.

On the downside, a bearish reaction below Wednesday’s low at 1.3137 cancels this view and exposes the November 2025 lows at 1.3030 and 1.3010.