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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD tests key support at $4,070 amid high Oil prices

October 22, 2026

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XAU/USD dropped sharply on Thursday to test the lowest levels in nearly three months, at $4,070.
The surging oil prices have offset the positive impact of lower US Treasury yields.
Below $4,070, bears will be attracted by the $4,000 psychological level.

Gold (XAU/USD) dropped sharply on Tuesday to test the bottom of the last three weeks’ trading range, and a nearly three-month low at $4,070, which so far remains intact. Precious metals remain on their back foot on Thursday, weighed by higher Oil prices, as the Middle East conflict threatens to complicate further and Yemeni Houthi militias keep pounding Saudi oilfields

Brent Oil is testing five-month highs around $109.00 and WTI Crude approaches $100 following a New York Times report suggesting that the US and Israel might be considering renewing coordinated attacks on Iran after the US midterm election.

Meanwhile, attacks on Saudi Oil infrastructure from the Iran-backed Houthis continue. A drone attack on Aramco’s Shaybah Oil field has reportedly killed two people and reactivated concerns about supply disruptions. All this is contributing to the recent escalation in Crude prices and offsetting the traditional positive impact on precious metals from the pullback in US Treasury yields.

Technical Analysis: Bears test $4,070 with $4,000 in sight

XAU/USD trades at $4,085.58, just above a key support area around $4,070 that has been containing downside attempts since late September. Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart support the bearish view as the Relative Strength Index (14) dips toward the low-30s, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero.

A confirmation below the mentioned $4,070 area (October 7, 14 lows) would bring the late July and early August lows around the $4,000 psychological area into focus. Upside attempts, on the contrary, are likely to be tested at Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s highs around $4,150, ahead of the $4,200 area (October 13 and 16 highs), and the range top around $4,230.