Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to shrug off NFP report – Commerzbank

The first quarter saw gold gain by nearly 6%. Market participants will be focusing on no fewer than two important events today, EU inflation figures and US labour market data. The first could lift the price of gold in euros while the second is unlikely to impact XAU/USD, economists at Commerzbank report.

Hot EU inflation data to lift gold in euros

“The Eurozone inflation rate for March will be published. The Bloomberg consensus of +6.7% is likely to prove considerably too low. Our economists anticipate a rise of 7.7%. This will further increase the pressure on the ECB to take steps to ensure price stability. Gold in euros could therefore rise in response to the data.”

“The Bloomberg consensus expects an increase of nearly 500K jobs, which would mean that the US labour market is continuing to run hot. The Fed is likely to see this as confirmation of the need to raise interest rates to a greater extent at its upcoming meetings. Since the market’s rate hike expectations have already picked up in recent weeks, however, we do not expect the labour market data to have any major impact on the gold price.”

EUR/USD fails to capitalize on hot EU inflation data.EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and continues to trade near the mid-1.1000s on Friday. The data from the eurozone showed that the annual HICP inflation jumped to 7.5% in March from 5.9% in February. Investors now await US March Nonfarm Payrolls report.


GBP/USD remains below 1.3150 amid firmer USD, yields, focus on NFP.GBP/USD is keeping its range below 1.3150 ahead of the US NFP. The cautious market mood is underpinning the safe-haven US dollar amid a rebound in the Treasury yields. GBP bulls have shrugged off the upbeat UK Q4 GDP. 


Gold remains at the mercy of yields ahead of all-important US NFP.Gold price is treading water as the bond rout resumes, propelling yields higher. All eyes remain on the US NFP and Russia-Ukraine peace talks for fresh cues. Gold price remains capped below the horizontal 21-DMA amid bullish RSI.  

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