Despite all the geopolitical noise, EUR/USD has not strayed too far from short-term rate differentials, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD correction above 1.05 not to hold for long
“These have moved in favour of the euro this month as fears over a slowdown in US consumption have prompted the pricing of a slightly more dovish Fed profile. Where EUR/USD goes from here will largely be determined by how the Fed and ECB cycles get re-priced, and whether the EU tariff threat is real. Our baseline view is that tariffs will go into place in April and that any EUR/USD correction above 1.05 does not hold for long.”
“EUR/USD looks well contained in a 1.0450-0530 range. Look out for month-end flows, however, particularly around the 17CET WMR fix. The substantial outperformance of eurozone equities this month (Eurostoxx +6%, S&P 500 -1%) could lead to some EUR/USD selling as the buy-side rebalances portfolios to desired weights.”
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