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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Stability above 20-day EMA backs further upside

July 7, 2026

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GBP/USD edges down to near 1.3380 as the US Dollar ticks higher.
The FOMC minutes will likely influence the Fed’s interest rate expectations.
A smooth UK leadership transition appears to be supporting the British Pound.

The British Pound (GBP) ticks lower to near 1.3380 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair edges down as the US Dollar gains slightly; however, the Cable is broadly upbeat.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.90.

The US Dollar is expected to trade cautiously as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors will closely read FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

In the United Kingdom (UK), firms hope that ongoing fiscal principles will continue despite the leadership transition supporting the British Pound. Andy Burnham, the newly elected Member of Parliament and Mayor of Greater Manchester, is the front-runner for UK leadership after Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer’s resignation.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades at around 1.3380 at press time. The Cable has shown a stalwart rally after attracting significant buying interest near 1.3140 two weeks back. The pair holds a constructive near-term tone as it remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3320.

Momentum is mildly positive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) at 55.7, hinting that buyers retain control without the market appearing overstretched.

On the topside, the next key hurdle is the downward-sloping resistance trend line, which comes in around 1.3526 and caps the broader recovery. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 1.3320 ahead of the June low near 1.3140.