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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Holds firm above 1.3350, but remains capped below key moving average

November 9, 2026

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GBP/USD holds positive ground around 1.3385 in Monday’s early European session.
The pair keeps a bearish tone below the 100-day SMA; further consolidation cannot be ruled out with neutral RSI momentum.
The first upside target to watch is 1.3395; the initial support level is seen at 1.3355.

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to near 1.3385 during the early European trading hours on Monday. A hawkish hike from the Bank of England (BoE) provides some support to the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD).

The UK central bank decided to lift its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%, marking its first rate increase in over three years. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the war in the Middle East, which is pushing up energy prices, as the main factor in deciding future rates.

Bailey added that falling oil prices following the market reacting to the US midterms would not have changed the decision made, but admitted it “obviously” has an impact on his view going forward.

In its BoE forecast for growth and inflation, the central bank revised up its expectations for growth this year and next to 1.6% and 1.3%, stronger than the government’s Office for Budget Responsibility projected.

Sterling steadies as BoE hike matches Fed range but inflation risks linger

Analysts at ABN Amro highlight that the BoE delivered another tightening step, raising the bank rate by “25 bps to 4.00%, matching the upper bound of the 3.75-4.00% Fed Funds Rate range.” They note that the decision was firmly supported within the committee, with “eight members” backing the move, while “one preferred a 50-bps increase,” underscoring a still-hawkish bias.

ABN Amro adds that the MPC “projected inflation to reach around 5% by mid-2027 and signalled another increase unless the Middle East conflict is resolved,” suggesting that geopolitical developments remain a key conditional factor in the BoE’s policy path.

BoE’s Pill signals greater rate uncertainty, weighing on Pound outlook

FXS Speechtracker’s 4.2/10 score, well below Pill’s 6.4/10 historic average, points to a more cautious and less conviction-driven message. By stressing that nothing is baked in for interest rates next year and rejecting any preset upward path from spring, the speech marks a dovish shift away from previously implied tightening bias.

The possibility that Bank Rate could stay on hold or even fall if growth stalls, and the focus on margin squeeze as a key determinant, reinforce downside risks for the Pound. This conditional stance ties future policy to corporate pressures and growth dynamics, encouraging markets to pare back expectations for sustained rate hikes and to reassess Pound-supportive carry trades.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMA

In the daily chart, GBP/USD retains a mildly bearish, capped bias as it holds just beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), with prices still within the upper half of the Bollinger envelope and the 20-day SMA (middle band) offering nearby support. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.5 sits close to neutral territory, hinting at consolidative momentum rather than a decisive trend continuation.

On the topside, initial resistance level is defined by the 100-day SMA at 1.3395, with a stronger barrier at the Bollinger upper band near 1.3490. Any follow-through buying above this level could see a rally to the July 15 high of 1.3558.

On the downside, immediate support level emerges at the Bollinger middle band around 1.3355, followed by the October 28 low of 1.3272. A deeper pullback would aim toward the lower limit of Bollinger band near 1.3225.