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Gold gains over 1% as as US Dollar pares post-NFP gains, US CPI in focus

November 9, 2026

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Gold opens the week higher as the US Dollar gives back some of its post-NFP gains.
US inflation data and Fed speeches could shift expectations for the December rate decision.
XAU/USD shows improving bullish momentum, with the 21-day SMA offering immediate support.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher during Monday’s American trading hours as a softer US Dollar (USD) and lower US Treasury yields support the metal. Traders are turning their attention to this week’s US inflation data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,122, up 1.38% on the day.

The US Dollar gives back some of the gains sparked by the upbeat US jobs report released on Friday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.83, down from its post-payrolls high of 102.36.

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 165K in October, more than double the 65K forecast, while September’s gain was revised up to 60K from 29K. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.

The figures suggest the labour market is holding up, giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) room to raise interest rates further to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict leave inflation risks tilted to the upside.

However, Oil prices have eased from recent highs as diplomatic efforts continue and traders bet that Democrats’ midterm victory will increase pressure on President Donald Trump to end the war with Iran. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $86.75 a barrel, down more than 3% on the day.

In a CBS News interview that aired Sunday, Trump said there was “no reason” to escalate the conflict. Trump is also expected to meet Qatar’s prime minister at the White House on Monday.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. Both reports could shift expectations for the Fed’s final policy decision of the year.

Analysts at Commerzbank Research note that the Fed’s September projections already leaned decisively toward further tightening, pointing out that “of the 18 Fed officials who submitted projections for the appropriate path of interest rates in September, 16 anticipated at least one more rate hike this year.” They add that the economic releases since then, including strong October payrolls and still-elevated inflation, are “unlikely to have changed that assessment materially.”

Traders are pricing in an 80% chance of a December rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The hawkish Fed outlook remains a headwind for Gold, as higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

Alongside the inflation data, traders will also watch a busy slate of Fed speeches this week for clues on how policymakers are leaning ahead of the December meeting.

Technical Analysis: Bulls eye 50-day and 100-day SMAs near $4,200

On the daily chart, the upside in XAU/USD remains capped by the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while the 200-day SMA sits higher still, reinforcing the broader bearish bias.

Still, the metal trades above the 21-day SMA at $4,068 while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above the neutral 50 mark and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator advances in positive territory, hinting at improving short-term momentum within a still bearish structural backdrop.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA at $4,190, followed closely by the 100-day SMA at $4,201, while a more distant barrier emerges at the 200-day SMA at $4,457. On the downside, initial support appears at the 21-day SMA near $4,068, ahead of the psychological horizontal floor at $4,000 and the year-to-date low of $3,870.